Let’s take a step back and look at the water year precipitation forecasts that are freely available. The closest product is the “Seasonal Outlook” provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), which is part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The seasonal outlooks provide forecasts of expected precipitation patterns over a 3 month period- NOT the entire water year. The precipitation forecast has three categories: Above normal, below normal, or equal chances. In addition, the CPC provides probability percentages for each of the forecast categories, indicating the likelihood of the condition occurring. For example, in the Sep/Oct/Nov seasonal outlook issued August 17, 2023, almost the entire state of California falls into the “equal chances above or below normal precipitation” category, save the northwesternmost corner of the state with a 33-40% chance of being below normal.

So that’s what free gets you- uncertainty and indecision.

So back to the question, why should you pay?

You may not think you’re paying for the water year precipitation forecast information you currently use, but it is costing you. Rather than making strategic decisions in response to expected precipitation, you’re left to “wait and see.” There is a different way.

To dig a little deeper, 40% chance of below-normal precipitation means a 40% chance of experiencing drier than normal conditions. However, this also implies that there is still a 30% chance of average precipitation and a 30% chance of above normal conditions.

Beyond that, how does a decision-maker know how much above or below normal the precipitation will be? Simply put, there is no way of knowing. The seasonal outlooks give NO indication of “how wet” or “how dry.” It’s no wonder businesses feel they are at the mercy of mother nature. To further complicate matters, the CPC outlooks are updated on a monthly basis. So it is likely that the forecast for a particular season will fluctuate with subsequent updates.

The CPC seasonal outlook has been the most widely referenced seasonal precipitation forecast for California. As news outlets amplify these forecasts and associated narratives, media chatter can contribute to groupthink. What started as “40% chance of below normal conditions” evolves into headlines about drought and grows into a consensus in thinking, in the absence of critical analysis.

Has groupthink failed you? It’s time to think for yourself and for your business!

The California Annual Precipitation report is different than the CPC outlook in several critical ways. Let’s look at the 2022-23 water year precipitation forecast and discuss the features that differentiate this from what’s “freely” available.

The California water year runs from October 1 through September 30. Issued during the first week of November, the 2022-23 water year precipitation forecast called for 20-40% ABOVE NORMAL precipitation for the state of California.

1. The forecast tells you whether the water year will be above or below normal AND quantifies how wet or how dry- not with words like “very wet” or “very dry” but with a numeric range. We provide a definitive forecast of expected precipitation in 20 percent ranges.
2. The forecast is issued nearly a year ahead (in November) providing ample time to make strategic plans and position resources.
3. The forecast is not adjusted or updated once it is issued.
4. The forecast does not include probabilities. We have complete confidence in the range of precipitation values we forecast.
5. Accuracy. The CAP forecast has verified for seven years in a row- and counting, meaning the measured precipitation has been within the forecasted range each and every year. By almost any measure, each of these years has been marked by extreme precipitation and the CAP service has been correct each and every time.

Think of what unexpected precipitation has cost you over the years. Can you imagine knowing the unknowable? “Wait and see” becomes “Plan and succeed!”